David Wilcock
10-28-2003, 09:12 AM
group,
we had a question pop up a few days ago about this from our friend in
the satellite business. though the sun's overall activity appears to
have declined as is warranted with the 11-year cycle, the remainder is
anything from "normal." i didn't have the exact numbers to back this up,
but battros did a pretty good job today. this will be affecting us in
unexpected ways as time goes on - the closer we get to the "waterline"
between densities, the more intense the sun will behave, regardless of
where it is supposed to be in its cycle. here goes:
severe solar flare alert now in progress...10/28/03
by mitch battros (ectv)
i have just been notified minutes ago, an unprecedented x-14 flare has
just exploded from sunspot region 486. this is the 2nd largest solar
flare to erupt in the last three years. there was only one higher back
in 2000 which registered as x-15. at this point in the so-called 'solar
cycle 23', we should be witness to a significant "decrease" in solar
activity. we are not!
an intensifying s2-class solar radiation storm is in progress. the
explosion almost certainly hurled a coronal mass ejection toward earth,
which could trigger bright auroras when it arrives on oct 29th or 30th.
stay tuned for details.
just in the last five days, the sun has thrown (12) twelve m-class
flares, (5) five x-class flares, (7) seven cme's. many more are expected
over the next five to ten days. we have been incredible lucky as to not
having a 'direct hit' to earth. we have come close with 'glancing blows'
having only slight power grid and satellite disruption. but by no means
are we out of the woods just yet.
today's sunspot count has shot up to 238. there are now few, if any,
space weather scientists who are holding on to any such idea that we are
in a "normal" solar cycle. we are not! we are in a "mega cycle", perhaps
one that is close to 144 years in cycle. but there is just as much
evidence which would suggest we are perhaps in a 1200 year cycle. it is
very hard to analyze. but in my mind, and most upper level scholars,
know we "are not" in something called 'cycle 23'.
today's sunspot count is further evidence of a "mega cycle". to give a
comparison, if we were in the nasa predicted 'cycle 23', we would be in
double digit sunspot counts, perhaps between 40 and 65. there would also
be the absence of solar flares or cme's. sure, there may be an
occasional event, but nothing any where close to what we see today.
watch for sudden freak storms to occur. most notably might be
'micro-bursts', straight-line winds, wind shears, and tornadoes. also
watch for 'record breaking' rain, or record high temperatures. (see
equation)
equation:
sunspots => solar flares => magnetic shift => shifting ocean and jet
stream currents => extreme weather and human disruption (mitch battros)
yesterday, sky & telescope put out a notice advising people of space
weather predictions. it indicates a sure direction towards the upcoming
"super-duper doppler weatherman".
here is their quote: "what tools we have would be somewhat analogous to
a meteorologist predicting the arrival and intensity of a storm front
based on the data from a single station located over a thousand miles
away. it's possible to do, but accuracy and timing suffer. so don't be
surprised if space weather predictions aren't always as accurate as
might be desired. mankind has a long way to go before space weather
forecasting is as routine as meteorological forecasting."
dw: since battros wrote this, the storm has now been upgraded to an
x-18, the largest of its kind in 14 years - and this is not at a time
where such things are expected. the conventional models do not hold true
anymore considering the number of cme's, especially, that we have been
seeing. it even made the headlines of the drudge report today, right at
the top, linking here:
http://www.spaceweather.com
i am not interested in arguing about whether or not this is really
happening, but did want to point this out. the facts of the changes
throughout the solar system stand for themselves and the model is
continually being validated with new information.
peace be with you -
- david
we had a question pop up a few days ago about this from our friend in
the satellite business. though the sun's overall activity appears to
have declined as is warranted with the 11-year cycle, the remainder is
anything from "normal." i didn't have the exact numbers to back this up,
but battros did a pretty good job today. this will be affecting us in
unexpected ways as time goes on - the closer we get to the "waterline"
between densities, the more intense the sun will behave, regardless of
where it is supposed to be in its cycle. here goes:
severe solar flare alert now in progress...10/28/03
by mitch battros (ectv)
i have just been notified minutes ago, an unprecedented x-14 flare has
just exploded from sunspot region 486. this is the 2nd largest solar
flare to erupt in the last three years. there was only one higher back
in 2000 which registered as x-15. at this point in the so-called 'solar
cycle 23', we should be witness to a significant "decrease" in solar
activity. we are not!
an intensifying s2-class solar radiation storm is in progress. the
explosion almost certainly hurled a coronal mass ejection toward earth,
which could trigger bright auroras when it arrives on oct 29th or 30th.
stay tuned for details.
just in the last five days, the sun has thrown (12) twelve m-class
flares, (5) five x-class flares, (7) seven cme's. many more are expected
over the next five to ten days. we have been incredible lucky as to not
having a 'direct hit' to earth. we have come close with 'glancing blows'
having only slight power grid and satellite disruption. but by no means
are we out of the woods just yet.
today's sunspot count has shot up to 238. there are now few, if any,
space weather scientists who are holding on to any such idea that we are
in a "normal" solar cycle. we are not! we are in a "mega cycle", perhaps
one that is close to 144 years in cycle. but there is just as much
evidence which would suggest we are perhaps in a 1200 year cycle. it is
very hard to analyze. but in my mind, and most upper level scholars,
know we "are not" in something called 'cycle 23'.
today's sunspot count is further evidence of a "mega cycle". to give a
comparison, if we were in the nasa predicted 'cycle 23', we would be in
double digit sunspot counts, perhaps between 40 and 65. there would also
be the absence of solar flares or cme's. sure, there may be an
occasional event, but nothing any where close to what we see today.
watch for sudden freak storms to occur. most notably might be
'micro-bursts', straight-line winds, wind shears, and tornadoes. also
watch for 'record breaking' rain, or record high temperatures. (see
equation)
equation:
sunspots => solar flares => magnetic shift => shifting ocean and jet
stream currents => extreme weather and human disruption (mitch battros)
yesterday, sky & telescope put out a notice advising people of space
weather predictions. it indicates a sure direction towards the upcoming
"super-duper doppler weatherman".
here is their quote: "what tools we have would be somewhat analogous to
a meteorologist predicting the arrival and intensity of a storm front
based on the data from a single station located over a thousand miles
away. it's possible to do, but accuracy and timing suffer. so don't be
surprised if space weather predictions aren't always as accurate as
might be desired. mankind has a long way to go before space weather
forecasting is as routine as meteorological forecasting."
dw: since battros wrote this, the storm has now been upgraded to an
x-18, the largest of its kind in 14 years - and this is not at a time
where such things are expected. the conventional models do not hold true
anymore considering the number of cme's, especially, that we have been
seeing. it even made the headlines of the drudge report today, right at
the top, linking here:
http://www.spaceweather.com
i am not interested in arguing about whether or not this is really
happening, but did want to point this out. the facts of the changes
throughout the solar system stand for themselves and the model is
continually being validated with new information.
peace be with you -
- david